天塌不下來 • The China-U.S. Trade War (Bundle)

The relation between China and the United States is arguably the most important bilateral relation in the world today. The U.S. and China are respectively the largest and the second largest economies in the world. They are also respectively the largest and the second largest trading nations in the world as well as each other’s most important trading partner. If China and the U.S. work together as partners towards a common goal, many things are possible. However, there exist significant friction and potential conflict in their economic relations. The large and persistent U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit is one of the problems.

It is essential to know the true state of the China-U.S. trade balance before effective solutions can be devised to narrow the trade surplus or deficit. The impacts and potential impacts of the 2018 trade war between China and the U.S. on the two economies are analysed and discussed. The longterm forces that underlie the economic relations between the two countries beyond the 2018 trade war are examined. In this connection, how a “new type of major-power relation” between the two countries can help to keep the competition friendly and avert a war between them is explored.

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Lawrence J. Lau’s timely The China-U.S. Trade War and Future Economic Relations is full of careful analysis, penetrating insight and helpful suggestions from the world’s preeminent economist on this relationship.

—Michael J. Boskin
Tully M. Friedman Professor of Economics, Stanford University
Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers

This sober and systematic study of U.S.-China trade relations and of technological development in the two countries is particularly timely. Lawrence Lau is one of the world’s foremost economists working on these issues.

—Dwight H. Perkins
Harold Hitchings Burbank Professor of Political Economy, Emeritus
Former Chair, Department of Economics, Harvard University

This is a timely and penetrating analysis of the China-U.S. trade and economic relations, from its origins to its impacts and to a way forward.

—Yingyi Qian
Chairman of the Council, Westlake University
Former Dean, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University
Counsellor of the State Council, People’s Republic of China

Lawrence Lau’s book on the current U.S.-China trade war is insightful, balanced and comprehensive; rich in data on trade, investment, science and technology. It is essential reading for anyone who wants to get past the headlines.

—A. Michael Spence
Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences (2001)
Senior Fellow, The Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Lawrence Lau brings light in the form of rigorous honest fact-based economic analysis to a subject where most of the discussion has been heated bluster, false claims, and political rhetoric.

—Lawrence H. Summers
Former U.S. Secretary of the Treasury; Former President, Harvard University

There is no topic more important, or more timely, or more urgent, than the China-U.S. trade war. Professor Lau is the ideal person to write about the implications of the China-U.S. trade war and the proposed resolution.

—Tung Chee-Hwa
Vice-Chairman, Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference National Committee
Chairman, China-U.S. Exchange Foundation

The history of Sino-American relations, to a great extent, has been a shared history. Lawrence Lau’s timely and penetrating study will tell us it is still in best interest for both countries if they continue to pursue a shared journey and destination instead of parting ways.

—Xu Guoqi
Kerry Group Professor in Globalization History, The University of Hong Kong
Author of Chinese and Americans: A Shared History

This beautifully composed book uses nontechnical language to unravel the intricacies of the 2018 U.S.-China trade war, together with its long-term impact. I learned a lot from reading it.

—Chen-Ning Yang
Nobel Laureate in Physics (1957)

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中美關係無疑是當今世界最重要也最關鍵的雙邊關係。美國和中國分別是全球第一和第二大經濟體，也是第一和第二大貿易國，且互為最重要的貿易夥伴。假如中美兩國結為夥伴，為共同目標聯手行動，許多事情將成為可能。但中美經濟關係中存在著重大摩擦和潛在衝突，持久且較大的美中貿易逆差就是問題之一。

為縮小貿易順差或逆差而設計有效的解決方案，必須首先弄清楚中美貿易收支的真實情況。本書不僅討論了2018 年中美貿易戰對雙方的直接和潛在衝擊，還超越了貿易戰，探討影響中美兩國經濟關係的長期基礎性因素，以及與之相關的如何利用兩國間的「新型大國關係」來維持和平競爭，從而避免戰爭。

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劉遵義適時貢獻這部專著，為兩國當前出現的爭端提供了細緻的分析、深刻的見解與甚有助益的建議。

— Michael J. Boskin（史丹福大學Tully M. Friedman經濟學教授，白宮經濟顧問委員會前主席）

這本書對中美貿易戰的結構性成因，貿易戰對中美兩大經濟體以及世界經濟的可能衝擊，以及突破中美零和遊戲陷阱的可能路徑，提供了最完整而即時的系統性分析。

—朱雲漢（國立台灣大學政治學系教授，中央研究院院士）

在當前東西方學術界中，沒有人能比劉教授對中美貿易戰有更深刻的分析與觀察。

—高希均（台灣遠見．天下文化事業群創辦人）

劉遵義教授以傑出的經濟學的修養與識見，為危機的化解提供了合理、合情、合勢的有力途徑。

—金耀基（香港中文大學社會學系講座教授，香港中文大學前校長）

劉遵義教授這本書提供微觀和宏觀的數據，深厚而清晰的立論與闡釋，讓我們深入瞭解兩個大國的「新常態」發展，以及如何影響全球政治、經濟和社會的發展趨勢。

—梁錦松（南豐集團董事長兼行政總裁，香港特別行政區財政司前司長）

這本書回顧了中美貿易衝突的歷史、現狀及影響，分析了中美之間的競合關係及由此帶來的機遇和挑戰，給我們思考當下中美經貿關係及未來的發展提供了一個非常有意義的視角。

—劉明康（中國銀行業監督管理委員會前主席）

這部關於美中貿易關係與兩國科技發展的研究著作冷靜、客觀且系統嚴密，它的推出格外及時。劉遵義是當今世界該領域最出色的經濟學家之一。

— Dwight H. Perkins（哈佛大學Harold Hitchings Burbank 政治經濟學教授、經濟學系前系主任