Who Would Change Their Vote and Why? (out of stock)

The aim of this paper is to identify who in Taiwan would tend to change their vote and to unveil their reasons for doing so, through an empirical study on the 2006 Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections. Here, voting change is classified not simply as a change in an elector's choice of vote from one party to another party but more particularly as any one of the following three categories of change in voting action: (1) "change within the same camp/neutral", (2) "change to the opposition camp", and (3) "absent or invalid vote". An empirical analysis indicates that young people and males are more likely to change their choice of vote. Identification is the chief predictor of voting change in Taiwan. Weak party identity and political camp identity contribute to voting instability. People with a stronger party identity prefer to abstain from voting or to cast an invalid vote rather than change within the same camp or to a neutral group. By contrast, people with a stronger camp identity prefer to change within the same camp or to vote for candidates with a neutral background. A poor evaluation of a candidate would lead to a shift of vote to other candidates. A good performance from an incumbent can lead to the retention of support from the original electoral base and also attract votes from followers of opposition camps. Strategy voting would lead to a change in vote to a candidate within the same camp or to a candidate with a neutral background. 本文分析台灣選民在2006年臺北市及高雄市市長選舉中的投票行為,藉以識別較大機會轉變投票抉擇的選民,以及解釋其變遷因由。投票變遷是指選民在不同選舉中沒有投票給相同的政黨,可分為三種不同的變遷：（一）「改投給其他相同政治陣營/中立的候選人」、（二）「改投給敵對政治陣營候選人」和（三）「不再參與投票或改投廢票」。研究顯示年輕人及男性較大機會轉變其投票抉擇。身份認同是影響台灣投票變遷的主要因素,微弱的政黨認同及政治陣營認同導致投票變遷。如果選民決定不再投票給上次選舉支持的政黨,有較強政黨認同的選民傾向不參與投票或投廢票,而有較強政治陣營認同的選民則傾向投票給其他相同政治陣營/或中立的候選人。除此之外,如果選民對上次選舉支持的政黨選人評價不高,便有較大機會改投給其他候選人；相反,現任者的良好工作表現不但有助保持原有選民的支持,還能吸引敵對陣營支持者的選票。最後,策略性投票亦可能令選民改投給其他相同政治陣營/中立的候選人。